Climate projection data and information was used in developing regional climate change adaptation plans.
Future global climate is influenced by both internal and external factors. Internal forces include naturally occurring oscillations of the weather through to seasonal changes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or decadal changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). External forcing factors such as land use change, solar variation, aerosols, ozone and volcanic eruptions are also very influential on the future climate. These however are less easy to quantify than greenhouse gases, which are the major human-induced forcing factor contributing to future climate change.
There have been numerous reputable scientific studies of the future global climate. Information presented on this website is based on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology studies that utilise global climate models to investigate plausible future climates, sometimes supplemented with additional fine resolution modelling techniques. The investigation of these climate futures is primarily undertaken by simulating the future global climate under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology scientific studies applied a regional approach for determining climate futures to provide support to the Australian natural resource management (NRM) sector. Across Australia, there are eight NRM clusters. This was informed by logical groupings of recent past climatic conditions, biophysical factors and expected broad patterns of climate change. Where possible, the cluster boundaries were aligned with the 2013 boundaries of regional NRM organisations.
In Victoria, the 10 NRM organisations, known as Catchment Management Authorities (CMA), were grouped into two clusters:
1. Murray Basin: Wimmera CMA, Goulburn Broken CMA, North Central CMA, North East CMA and Mallee CMA.
2. Southern Slope: Corangamite CMA, Glenelg Hopkins CMA, East Gippsland CMA, West Gippsland CMA and Port Phillip & Westernport CMA.
Climate projections and key messages specific to the Murray Basin and Southern Slopes clusters can be downloaded below as summary brochures or reports:
In collaboration with community and a range of stakeholders, each CMA has developed their own Climate Change Adaptation Plan which includes priority areas for carbon sequestration and planting. The Regional CMA Information page will direct you to CMA specific climate change adaptation information. Full plans for each CMA can be accessed via the links below: