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Climate projection data and information was used in developing regional climate change adaptation plans.

Future global climate is influenced by both internal and external factors. Internal forces include naturally occurring oscillations of the weather through to seasonal changes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or decadal changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). External forcing factors such as land use change, solar variation, aerosols, ozone and volcanic eruptions are also very influential on the future climate. These however are less easy to quantify than greenhouse gases, which are the major human-induced forcing factor contributing to future climate change.

There have been numerous reputable scientific studies of the future global climate. Information presented on this website is based on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology studies that utilise global climate models to investigate plausible future climates, sometimes supplemented with additional fine resolution modelling techniques. The investigation of these climate futures is primarily undertaken by simulating the future global climate under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology scientific studies applied a regional approach for determining climate futures to provide support to the Australian natural resource management (NRM) sector. Across Australia, there are eight NRM clusters. This was informed by logical groupings of recent past climatic conditions, biophysical factors and expected broad patterns of climate change. Where possible, the cluster boundaries were aligned with the 2013 boundaries of regional NRM organisations.

In Victoria, the 10 NRM organisations, known as Catchment Management Authorities (CMA), were grouped into two clusters:

  1. Murray Basin: Wimmera CMA, Goulburn Broken CMA, North Central CMA, North East CMA and Mallee CMA.       
  2. Southern Slopes: Corangamite CMA, Glenelg Hopkins CMA, East Gippsland CMA, West Gippsland CMA and Port Phillip & Westernport CMA. 

Climate projections and key messages specific to the Murray Basin and Southern Slopes clusters can be downloaded below as summary brochures or reports:

Cluster Summary Brochure

Murray Basin

Southern Slopes 

Cluster Report

Murray Basin

Southern Slopes

In collaboration with community and a range of stakeholders, each CMA has developed their own Climate Change Adaptation Plan which includes priority areas for carbon sequestration and planting. The Regional CMA Information page will direct you to CMA specific climate change adaptation information. Full plans for each CMA can be accessed via the links below:

Corangamite CMA

East Gippsland CMA

Glenelg Hopkins CMA

Goulburn Broken CMA

Mallee CMA

North Central CMA

North East CMA

West Gippsland CMA

Wimmera CMA

Port Phillip & Westernport CMA

Further information about CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology climate future key messages and reporting.

CMA Statewide Projects

Catchment Carbon Offsets Trial

This State-wide climate change project is aimed at complement Victorian government policies and strategies relating to climate change, water, catchment management and biodiversity by demonstrating how projects could deliver emissions reductions, climate resilience and improve catchment management outcomes. The project was a collaboration between the Victorian water sector, which comprises Catchment Management Authorities (CMAs), Water Corporations and the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP).  The catchment carbon offset (CCO) concept was framed around the idea of projects being designed to retain and increase carbon stocks to meet Water Corporation’s emission reductions requirement while simultaneously providing environmental and social benefits that are consistent with regional NRM planning frameworks, programs and targets. To test this concept a case study was undertaken with Wannon Water, Corangamite CMA and Glenelg Hopkins CMA.

Catchment Carbon Offsets Trial Further Reading

Catchment Carbon Offsets Trial Final Report

Gellibrand River case study

Catchment Carbon Offsets Trial Project Summary

Catchment Carbon Offsets Trial YouTube Presentation

View a YouTube recording of a presentation by Jacobs providing an overview of the catchment carbon offsets trial and the development and testing of a case study involving Wannon Water and Corangamite and Glenelg Hopkins CMAs. The project is funded through the Victorian Government's Our Catchments Our Communities initiative.