Glenelg Hopkins climate projections

>  Glenelg Hopkins CMA

Climate projections summary.

Current projections for climate change for the Glenelg Hopkins region were prepared by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 2012–2014. Projections are based on scenarios that calculate emissions growth through to the year 2100, compared with the 1986–2005 levels.

Key projections for the region are listed below[i]:

  • average temperatures will continue to increase by 1.1–4.0 °C by 2030 in all scenarios

  • more hot days and warm spells, and fewer frosts

  • up to 15% less rainfall in the cool season by 2090, but changes to summer rainfall are less clear

  • increased intensity of extreme daily rainfall events

  • mean sea level will continue to rise between 0.39 and 0.89 m by 2090, and the height of extreme sea level events will also increase

  • a harsher fire-weather climate

  • natural climate variability will either enhance or mask long-term trends from year to year, particularly in the near future, and for rainfall.


[i] CSIRO, Climate change in Australia projections cluster report – southern slopes, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 2015.